Betting on politics has become increasingly popular over the last decade. The bets differ from most sports betting in that you are usually betting on an event which result won’t be known for several months. This can make the wager more interesting as the outcome approaches, but also gives you the chance to increase your stake as events unfold, or even consider covering bets.
Primarily focused on UK and US political elections, bookmakers offer on-going markets on things like who will win the next election and who will be the next Conservative leader. There are only likely to become of interest to the bettor as the events become more imminent and coverage heats up.
Political betting throws up many unexpected results often initially available at odds of one hundred to one and larger. George Galloway winning the Bradford West bye election in 2012 and Jeremy Corbyn winning the Labour Party leadership in 2015 are prime examples. If you look at why these happened though it can be put down to one faction of the electorate being able to mobilise massive support. You can’t rely on polls either, all of which predicted a hung parliament at the last election when the Conservatives won with a majority.
What you can do however to make money on political gambling is to look at history, or study the form just as you would in a horse race. Let’s look at the forthcoming US presidential election from a bettor perspective, which is likely to take up more and more news space over the forthcoming months.
As we stand now, Hillary Clinton is odds-on to be the next president. From a betting proposition this is very poor considering that Americans have never elected a woman in 56 presidential elections. Hillary Clinton failed in her presidential election attempts in 2008. She is supposed to be a shoe in and probably is, but a betting proposition never at this price.
Donald Trump has recently shortened considerably in the market. His bandwagon is rolling, but history says no chance. Trump is best known for amassing a property empire and presenting the Apprentice TV show in the US. Celebrity self-made billionaires have never transferred to presidential status (William Randolph Hurst (press baron;) Henry Ford (car manufacturer;) and Charles Lindenbergh (aviator.) Moreover recent history tells us that perceived right-wing politicians with masses of popular support don’t get into power (Nigel Farage; Marie Le Pen.) The betting opportunity is that he is likely to shorten considerably in price over the next couple of month as he is does well in the early rounds. This will push other contenders out and improve their price, so the skill will be to follow this trend and get some of your money on another candidate later at a better price.
So who does history point to? Punters should look no further than Marco Rubio. He is currently generally available at nine to four to win the republican nomination and six to one to be the next president. The history here is Obama, who was able to mobilize the black vote (12% of the population.) Rubio will mobilise the Hispanic one (16% of the population.) He is a young handsome, attractive candidate who physically exudes a leadership presence (historical similarity JF Kennedy.) He is likely to emerge as the republican establishment candidate. History says he will win the Republican nomination. History says he can beat Clinton for the presidency.