Expert Guides : Reality TV Betting

Reality TV is a genre of television programming in which “real life” people are followed in a game or situation. This is now the most popular TV format in the UK with programmes such as: Britain’s Got Talent; The X Factor; Strictly Come Dancing; Big Brother; and I’m a Celebrity. Betting interest in these programmes has grown along with their viewing figures. Two current runners with betting markets are: The Voice and The Jump. One is decided by viewers votes, and the other by winter sport competition results. One is for celebrities and one for ordinary members of the public. These are important considerations for the bettor.

Reality TV Betting

The Voice is moving to ITV next year as the BBC can no longer afford it. It has 7m viewers, with Boy George and Paloma Faith making appearances as new coaches this year. With 35 current contestants, and more to be released, there is a long way to go until the finals in late March. As with many other shows such as the X Factor, the past winners Leanne Mitchell, Andrea Begley; Jermain Jackman, and Stevie McCrorie, have failed to shine subsequently since their breakthroughs. There is little to note about outright winner prices at the moment apart from Corals stand out prices on the bottom half of the market (offering 100/1 on many contestants that other bookmakers have in at 25’s.)

Less fortunate than The Voice, is C4’s The Jump. There have been injuries to the likes of Beth Tweddle (fractured neck) Mark Francis Vandelli (fractured ankle) and Rebecca Adlington (dislocated shoulder.) Viewing figures are down to 1.9m amidst calls for it to be axed after this series. The format is a winter sports event, with the two losers facing each others in the live air jump to decide who is eliminated. The final is in early March. Previous winners were Joe McElderry (X factor winner) and Joey Essex (reality TV personality.) This year the remaining fancied contestants are: Tom Parker (2/1 Corals; Boy band member) Dean Cain (5/2 Totesport; US actor) Ben Cohen (5/1 William Hills; Rugby union player) and Heather Mills (10/1 generally; Environmentalist and former wife of Paul McCartney.)

So how do you choose a winner;

  1. Watch the programmes- audience reaction should be studied
  2. Follow social media trending – look at the number of twitter followers each celebrity competitor has)
  3. Know and understand the rules- judges’ votes can carry a lot of weight on some shows; the voting system on The Voice in the past has been deemed unfair and has been changed; and X factor now has a voting app allowing free voting.
  4. Don’t be afraid to take on favourites (who have a poor record in these markets)
  5. Compare different bookmakers’ prices
  6. Contestant’s personality is important
  7. Read the gossip in the tabloids
  8. Listen to your wife
  9. Study the profile of previous winners
  10. Study internet polls (Paloma Faith’s team (The Voice) 5/2 generally has been highly rated by voting memberships on TV gossip websites)
  11. Watch for changed rules (a now simplified course in The Jump should favour athletes like Ben Cohen 5/1 generally.)

Don’t expect to make serious money by betting on reality shows, but it might make it more bearable to watch.

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3 thoughts on “Expert Guides : Reality TV Betting”

  1. There is only one reality TV show were the UK bookmakers consistently get it wrong, and that is the Ante post on ‘the Eurovision song contest'(final may Stockholm), im already on at some tasty prices, im not saying who they are at the moment but for the last few years this has been a cash cow for those who have followed the competition. The Sweedish entry last year was a shoe in, but yet the bookmakers failed in their homework, and all week of the competition got hammerd, even on the day offering 3/1. However tonight 26th February, we choose the UK entry, they have zero chance of winning in May but lets see who will win tonight, I have gone thru all the entries, and im afraid the favourites, DARLINE (until tommorow) will probably see it thru with ease, yes its a catchy modern day country and western beat, two pretty girls with very good voices…but the main reason is the voting public will be in the main 30 plus, Why?, it is on BBC4 Tonight, the target audience is not teenagers, if it was on BBC1, We may have a different result. DARLINE are freely available at 11/10 for tonights contest, they should see it thru, but due to the nature of the finals in Stockholm, dont back the UK entry…you have no chance of collecting.

  2. Well, the teen vote got thru, how I dont know…Dik and Dom won for the UK, or Jack and Jake, something like that, but in all honesty, they have ZERO CHANCE in MAY, the political voting is tied up, the UK are the Millwall in football terminology, ‘no one likes us’, Good Luck to them, but if they get a 100 points in total they will have done well. About the program last night, it was Car Crash TV, it was that bad, and Carrie Fisher..reminded me of Deliah Smith at Half Time During a Norwich game..Poor from the beeb…last point, Twitter and Facebook, hold the key to these type of events.

  3. Huge week coming up for Eurovision releases of songs representing various countries, Russia, Armenia and Even Australia are back…who should not be written off, but even before it is released, RUSSIA top 5 is a shoe in come May, the artist they have picked Will have no problems gaining a substatial vote. Alas there no bookmakers taking any chances on this market at the moment.

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