We get asked many questions about football betting and one of the most common ones is how to bet on the Premier League? It’s one of the most prestigious leagues in the world, it offers a whole host of markets and those markets tend to be incredibly liquid.
Betting on Outright Winners
As a punter, outright football betting on a single match has always been one of the easiest ways to formulate an understanding of odds, the art of pricing up a market, and the concept of a value bet.
At its simplest, an outright football market has three possible outcomes which are a win for the home team, a win for the away team, and a draw. If all three outcomes are deemed to have identical chances of happening, then the odds for each one should be 2/1. If you then put £1 on all three selections, you would get your £3 back regardless of the outcome.
But the bookies don’t make it that easy, as they factor in a percentage for themselves. That means the bookies may price up all three outcomes at 7/4, meaning you’d make a slight loss if placing a £1 bet on all three outcomes.
In truth, football matches are rarely priced up as evenly as this. You might find that Liverpool are 4/5, the draw is 3/1, and Chelsea are 11/4.
What you need to do is be able to price a match up before you look at the bookmaker’s odds. So, if you price up the match, Liverpool 4/6, the draw 4/1, and Chelsea 3/1, you’ll consider Liverpool are a value bet at a bigger price than you think they should be. This is when you should have a bet.
If you’re good at picking value selections, you should be able to make a profit from betting on the Premier League.
Betting on Other Markets
The introduction of lots of other football betting markets over the last few years has made the concept of how to bet on the Premier League even more interesting and exciting. You only need to look at the website of any online bookmaker to view a myriad of markets that can all be exploited to make profits if you can find a value angle.
The over/under 2.5 goals market has become one of the most popular markets in recent times. You can simply pick whether a match produces more or less than 2.5 goals. Not all matches go to plan, but there are many strong histories of teams that typically produce matches that fall into one category or another. If you’re looking for extensive EPL stats then check out SoccerStats.
But again, the bookies will catch onto many trends quickly, so studying the form book is important. Matches between some teams just go against the norm. An example of this would be Everton and Wolves, two teams who both produce more games with less than 2.5 goals than more than 2.5 goals. However, having fought out two games in the 2018/19 season with more than 2.5 goals, their first match of 2019/20 produced more than 2.5 goals, despite the bookies offering odds against – a value bet.
Both bookies and serious football punters will start a new season with opinions of how to bet on the Premier League and where to find value in the markets, but it’s important to spot trends quickly to try and exploit the value.
Liverpool were an obvious fancy to win most of their home matches this season, but the bookies started the season firmly of the opinion that Liverpool would keep lots of clean sheets at Anfield. That was a strong statistic in 2018/19 but, despite still having the best defence in the Premier League, Liverpool notably gave opponents more chances to score in the 2019/20 season.
Opponents have been taking them, too, as Liverpool’s first five home matches of the season landed a both teams to score bet and a Liverpool win and both teams to score bet. The great news for shrewd punters is the bookies have been slow to react to this trend, and still favour both teams not to score and Liverpool to win to nil. It’s spotting these trends which will separate the average punter with the profitable ones.
There are a few other things to keep an eye on when spotting trends:
Missing Players Make a Difference
There is no doubt that some players are crucial to some teams, though it might not always be the players you instantly think of. Goal scorers may be missed for their obvious ability to score goals, but other lower-profile players can be missed for their ability to link play and communicate. One example that springs to mind is Kasper Schmeichel.
Leicester are statistically worse when he’s not playing, so you might want to think about backing against Leicester if he gets injured or suspended.
Spot Trends that Others Don’t Notice
Professional football punters are always looking for trends that can maximize the profits from how they bet on the Premier League. Some of these trends can be spotted by looking through recent results, but others take a little more imagination to find.
One angle that punters have latched onto after the European success of the Premier League teams in recent years is how those teams perform after playing in Europe. It seems to make no difference to some teams. Yet others seem to struggle. Whether that is down to travelling, tiredness, or just not being up for a Premier League match against lesser opposition are all possibilities why they may under-perform.
This is especially true of the English teams that have had to play in the preliminary rounds of the Europa League in the last couple of seasons. Burnley and Wolves both got off to worse than expected starts in the Premier League in the season they had to play these matches.
How to Choose Markets
There are hundreds of Premier League football betting markets that offer punters possible angles to exploit, you just need to find the right markets for you. That means having the time to do your homework, the time to price your market up, check your odds against the bookmaker’s odds, and pick the value bets.
There are some markets to avoid such as the over/under corners markets which are very hard to accurately predict and very rarely offer value. But, over time, your knowledge and experience will grow to a level where you can determine which markets will offer you value.
How Experts Bet on the Premier League
Many professional punters specialize in one market, but the problem with this is bookmakers may quickly latch on to your skills in this area and limit your bets. That’s why most professional football punters have a few different angles when choosing how to bet on the Premier League.
The trouble for most people is they just don’t have the time to do the studying needed to exploit these markets, or they may lack the skill in knowing how to price up a market according to the facts they find.