When Is The Swinton Handicap Hurdle 2021?
The 2021 Swinton Handicap Hurdle takes place at 15.10 on Saturday 8 May. It is the fourth race on a rare race card that combines both jumps racing and flat racing.
Swinton Handicap Hurdle History
The race now known as the Swinton Handicap Hurdle was first run in 1978. Horses aged four and older can run in this Grade 3 race and the winner picks up a tasty first prize of £56,950.
The race is often just referred to as the Swinton Hurdle. It is run over 1 mile 7 furlongs and 144 yards, and the runners need to safely jump nine hurdles.
Swinton Handicap Hurdle 10-Year-Trends 2021
Eight of the last ten winners of the Swinton Handicap Hurdle were rated between 132 and 141, but winners have also won off marks of 126 and 148. Two horses have carried topweight of 11-12 to victory, while one has carried 10-2, but seven winners have carried between 10-6 and 11-3.
One 4-year-old, two 5-year-olds, three 6-year-olds, and four 7-years-olds have won the Swinton Handicap Hurdle in the last decade. Eight winners had already won a race in the same season they won the Swinton Hurdle, but only one winner had won their previous race.
Seven winners were returned at odds ranging between 5/1 (6.00) and 8/1 (9.00), but three outsiders have also won at 16/1 (17.00), 20/1 (21.00), and 25/1 (26.00).
Trainer Evan Williams has a fantastic record in the Swinton Handicap Hurdle, having won four of the last seven editions. Nicky Henderson has also trained two winners, while Philip Hobbs is another winning trainer in the last decade who has a runner this year.
Swinton Handicap Hurdle Runners 2021
Scarlet Dragon and Didtheyleaveyououto are the only runners aged older than seven. Teqany, Shanroe, and Any News all bid to become only the second horse to win the Swinton Handicap Hurdle off a mark higher than 141 in the last decade.
There’s a long list of runners that are trying to defy marks lower than 132, including Cormier, Hooper, Nordic Combined, Ballinsker, Copperless, Defining Battle, Celestial Force, and Thistimenextyear.
Hooper (Nicky Henderson) and Ballinsker (Evan Williams) both catch the eye because of the records of their trainers in the race, but the stats suggest that it could pay to look elsewhere for the winner.
The above list includes several useful ex-flat horses that have often been the type to thrive in this race over the years. Cormier has already failed to make much of an impact in competitive handicap hurdles and he was rated much lower on the flat than some of this similarly-weighted rivals here.
Nordic Combined won his last race and has also flopped in big handicaps before.
Trainer Dan Skelton has landed plenty of big handicaps this season and Defining Battle looks well-handicapped over hurdles on his flat form, having won off a mark of 77 on the flat. Celestial Force was rated in the 80s on the flat but there’s a suspicion he’ll be ideally suited by a longer trip over hurdles.
Thistimenextyear also reached a rating in the 80s on the flat and he returns for a second crack at this race having finished in midfield last year, be it off a 5lb higher mark.
Off the horses rated less than 132, Copperless stands out as the one with the most potential to claim this big prize. He was absolutely cruising when falling last time and the handicapper would have given him plenty more weight had he stayed on his feet that day.
Using the strongest statistics to narrow down the field leaves us with just four runners, Politicise, Camprond, Historic Heart, and Rowland Ward, but the last two mentioned both won their last races, after which the handicapper raised them 7lb and 10lb, respectively.
Camprond was just pipped by Rowland Ward at Aintree on his last run and this ex-French-trained flat horse could still have more to offer on just his fifth start over hurdles for trainer Phillip Hobbs, who won the 2015 Swinton Handicap Hurdle with another inexperienced hurdler, War Sound.
Politicise comes over from Ireland, and while there have been no Irish-trained winners of this race in the last decade, other than that he is a good stats-fit for the race. He’s already won on the flat and over jumps this season. The problem is he has run poorly on his two most recent starts after a break. But he did need two starts after his last break to hit peak form and this staying type on the flat could enjoy the long straight at Haydock.
Who Will Win The Swinton Handicap Hurdle 2021?
There are lots of useful flat horses that have got in off lightweights in this year’s Swinton Hurdle, and any one of them could step forward and relish this test. However, from those horses rated 132 or lower, Copperless looks the most likely winner if he stays on his feet this time.
But the statistics for this handicap are quite strong, and it’s tempting to put up Politicise at a big price in the hope that he bounces back to form. However, his last two runs have been too bad to take the chance.
With a progressive profile and an ideal stats-fit, Camprond gets the vote. He won over ten and 12 furlongs on the flat on good-to-soft ground in France and he should have the ideal blend of speed and stamina on similar ground for this test over hurdles.
Free Swinton Handicap Hurdle Tip 2021