15.10 – Diomed Stakes 2021
The Diomed Stakes is a Group 3 race run over 1 mile and 113 yards. It is open to horses aged three and older and is the third of seven races on Derby Day at Epsom.
Diomed Stakes Trends 2021
Field sizes in the last decade have ranged from six to eight runners. Seven of the last ten winners have been drawn in either stalls 1, 2, or 3, including the last six. But three winners have been drawn in either stalls six or seven.
Four winners have been 4-year-olds, but horses aged five, six, and eight have won two editions. Nine winners had run at least once already in the season of their victory, with four of those winning their previous race.
The last nine winners have been returned at odds ranging from 11/8 to 13/2. Simon Crisford has trained two of the last three winners, while Andrew Balding has trained two of the last nine winners.
Who Will Win The Diomed Stakes 2021?
Maximal tries to win a Diomed Stakes for the Classic generation, but 3-year-olds don’t have a great record in the race. Sole 4-year-old Pholas is also hard to fancy, as he’s rated just 92 and has looked better on the all-weather so far.
Marie’s Diamond hasn’t hit the frame in two runs at Epsom, while Oh This Is Us has placed just once in three course runs. Neither Escobar nor Prince Eiji win often enough to take a chance on, while Bell Rock won a handicap last time but has flopped in Group races in the past.
Century Dream looks likely to go off as favourite after winning the 2018 and 2020 editions of the Diomed Stakes and this 114-rated runner has the class to make it three wins. The negatives for this mud-lover are the fast ground and a wider than ideal draw in stall-8.
Duke of Hazzard has been dropped to a mark of 110 after a few disappointing runs, but he was rated 115 at his best. He likes fast ground and, though he’s never run at Epsom, he loves Goodwood which provides a similar challenge. A draw in stall-three looks ideal, and the first-time booking of Frankie Dettori suggests a big run in expected. 8/1 looks a big price if he’s back to his best.
Diomed Stakes Tip 2021
Duke Of Hazzard
15.45 – Epsom Dash 2021
The World Pool ‘Dash’ Handicap or Epsom Dash as it’s more popularly known is a handicap over 5-furlongs. Horses aged three or older may run in the race, which is the fourth of seven races on Derby Day at Epsom.
Epsom Dash Trends 2021
Age is no barrier to success in the Epsom Dash, with the last ten winners being aged from four to eight. Winners in the last decade have also been rated as low as 76 and as high as 107 and have carried anywhere between 8-0 and 9-10.
Seven winners had run between one and three weeks earlier, but only one winner had won their previous race. Only three of the last ten winners were returned at single-figure prices, and there have been winners at 25/1, 33/1, and 50/1. No trainer or jockey has won more than one of the last ten runnings.
Despite most of the statistics proving hard to pin down, the draw provides some strong trends. Four winners have been drawn in either stalls one or two, while five winners have been berthed between stalls 14-19. The last three winners on good-to-firm ground have been drawn 2, 1, and 2, but the two before that were drawn in stalls 9 and 15.
Who Will Win The Epsom Dash 2021?
20 runners make this a hard puzzle to solve, but three-time race winners Caspian Prince looks sure to set a strong pace for the low-drawn runners from stall-5. Whether the 12-year-old can make it four wins remains to be seen. Therefore, a chance is taken on Blue De Vega who has dropped to a decent mark and looks well-drawn with Ben Curtis booked to ride for the first time.
Epsom Dash Tip 2021
Blue De Vega (Each-Way)
16.30 – Epsom Derby 2021
The Epsom Derby is widely regarded as the world’s most important Classic. It is run over 1 mile 4 furlongs and 6 yards and is the fifth of seven races on Epsom Derby Day 2021.
Epsom Derby Trends
Aidan O’Brien has saddled six winners in ten years in the Epsom Derby, but the prices of those runners have ranged from 8/13 to 40/1. His six winners have also been ridden by five different jockeys, highlighting that it’s often not his most fancied runner that wins.
The last ten Derby winners have all had a prep run, with seven of them winning that race. The draw is also interesting, as eight of the last ten winners have been drawn between stalls seven and 12, with the other two coming from stalls seven and 14.
Who Will Win The 2021 Epsom Derby?
14 of the last 20 Epsom Derby winners had won their prep race, and the horses that were beaten last time out may be up against it. That quintet is Adayar, Gear Up, Mojo Star, One Ruler, and Southern Lights.
The stats for horses drawn between stalls seven and 12 is also strong, and those runners drawn lower or higher that we’ve not already discounted are Hurricane Lane, Mohaafeth, and Third Realm.
The connections of Chester Vase winner Youth Spirit have probably hated every ray of sunshine this week, and he may find conditions too fast come Saturday afternoon.
John Leeper is an interesting runner for Ed Dunlop, as the horse is named after his father and legendary Derby-winning trainer John Dunlop. Frankie Dettori, who has ridden some big winners for the trainer, also takes the ride. As the offspring of Frankel and Snow Fairy, he’s fancied to fare best of the English-trained runners.
Mac Swinney won the Irish Guineas last time, so it looks significant that he was thrashed over 10-furlongs by Bolshoi Ballet on his previous run.
Bolshoi Ballet is trained by Aidan O’Brien, and it looks significant that O’Brien relies solely on this son of Galileo, suggesting he’s been sparkling at Ballydoyle in the last few days.
Epsom Derby Tip 2021
Bolshoi Ballet
