When Is The Irish 2,000 Guineas 2021?
The 2021 Irish 2,000 Guineas takes place at 15.20 on Saturday 22 May. Like all of Ireland’s Classics, it takes place at the Curragh. It is the fourth race on an eight-race card.
Irish 2,000 Guineas Trends 2021
Eight of the last ten winners of the Irish 2,000 Guineas have been drawn in stalls 1-5, with the other two winners coming out of stalls six and ten.
The last two winners were making their seasonal debut but the eight winners before that had run between 15 and 21 days earlier. Five winners had won their previous race, but the others had finished second, second, sixth, unplaced, and unplaced on their final start before winning this Classic.
Irish-trained horses have won eight of the last ten renewals, with Aidan O’Brien winning five of those, but his last win was four years ago. Eight winners have been returned at odds of 5/1 or less, but there have been 16/1 and 25/1 winners in the last three years.
Irish 2,000 Guineas Runner-By-Runner Guide 2021
Agrimony
Stall five looks a decent draw but this 93-rated horse took three attempts to win his maiden. The re-opposing runner up that day was rated just 82, which suggests he has plenty to find with the higher-rated horses.
Battleground
Royal Ascot winner last year but there’s no guarantee that this son of War Front has trained on after a disappointing 13th of 14 in the English 2,000 Guineas. Looks to be Aidan O’Brien’s third string on jockey bookings and stall ten also looks to be a disadvantage.
Emporio
Stall three could be helpful but he finished second to Agrimony last time after having already had the benefit of a prep run. Lowest-rated runner in the field and it’s hard to make a case for a victory.
La Barossa
Rated 108, but there’s plenty of hope that he can rate much higher. Finished three quarters of a length behind a stablemate on his seasonal debut but that horse has since finished second in the English 2,000 Guineas. The winner of that race let the form down in France last weekend, but it was a very different type of race to an English Guineas.
Lucky Vega
117-rated runner that finished third in the English 2,000 Guineas, which on paper gives him an edge over La Barossa. However, he’s not fared as well in the draw in stall seven, and it could be close between the pair if they both run to their best form.
Mac Swiney
Interesting runner from the Jim Bolger stable, as he’s already a Group 1 winner on heavy ground. The ground at the Curragh is already nearly soft and it could well be bottomless by Saturday if the rain continues to come. Seemed to run out of stamina over 10-furlongs on faster ground last time and this test could be right up this dual course winner’s street.
Monaasib
Finished third over seven furlongs on his debut but the winner went on to win the English 2,000 Guineas. But’s he’s already run well over a mile, and he’s won twice with cut in the ground. Stall eight perhaps wider than ideal.
Poetic Flare
Winner of the English 2,000 Guineas but that win came on fast ground. Not disgraced in finishing sixth in the French 2,000 Guineas but his two unplaced efforts have now both come on soft ground. Stall six looks okay but he might be vulnerable to a real mudlark.
Rebel Step
91-rated runner whose last win came in a handicap. Won on soft ground but shouldn’t be winning a Classic.
The Rosstafarian
Second of the English runners and he’s entitled to take his chance after finishing sixth in the 2,000 Guineas. Could improve having had just three runs, but he needs to, and he’s drawn in stall 12.
Van Gogh
Another horse that contested the English 2,000 Guineas, finishing eighth, and he looks the Aidan O’Brien second string on jockey bookings. However, he looks the best-drawn of the trio and he could go well from stall two.
Wembley
Despite finishing only 11th in the English 2,000 Guineas, Ryan Moore keeps the faith. That’s not surprising considering he finished second to the subsequent French 2,000 Guineas winner on soft ground last year and he could relish a return to similar ground on a track that will bring his stamina into play. The problem is stall 11 but, as he’s likely to be played for a late run, that may not stop him if he’s back to his best.
Who Will Win The Irish 2,000 Guineas?
As Aidan O’Brien has won half of the last ten editions of the 2,000 Guineas, his trio demand respect. The problem for punters is which one do you side with. Van Gogh finished eighth at Newmarket but that was still better than Wembley and Battleground. Van Gogh has the best draw in stall two but, while it’s hard to make a case for Battleground, Wembley could be suited ideally by this test. However, stall 11 looks a disadvantage, with just one winner coming from a double-figure stall this century.
The form book suggests that the English 2,000 Guineas 1-2-6, Poetic Flare, Lucky Vega, and the Rosstafarian, have the right to beat the O’Brien trip. However, the winner may not like the ground and the Rosstafarian has the worst of the draw. That means Lucky Vega may come out on top this time.
However, with the stats suggesting that a draw in stall one to five is often a significant advantage, La Barossa and Mac Swiney look the most interesting runners. But as La Barossa has also run his worst race on soft ground, proven mudlark Mac Swiney looks the each-way value.
Irish 2,000 Guineas 2021 Tip
Mac Swiney (Each-way)
