The Commonwealth Cup and the Coronation Stakes are the highlights of day four of Royal Ascot. Read our analysis and free Royal Ascot day four 2021 tips.
15.40 – Commonwealth Cup 2021
The Commonwealth is a Group 1 race run over six furlongs that is restricted to 3-year-olds.
Commonwealth Cup Trends 2021
This is just the seventh edition of the Commonwealth Cup, a race that has already produced winners of the standard of Muhaarar, Quiet Reflection, Caravaggio, and Advertise.
Field sizes have ranged from nine to 22 runners, but all six winners have been drawn between stalls three and ten. Five colts and one filly have been successful. Five winners had also had at least one prep run, but only two winners had run their previous race.
No trainer or jockey has won the race more than once so far, but Clive Cox, Aidan O’Brien, Martin Meade, and Karl Burke all have the chance to change that statistic. Frankie Dettori, Adam Kirby, and Ryan Moore also have the chance to be the first jockey to win two Commonwealth Cups.
The six winners have been returned at odds of 5/6, 7/4, 5/1, 8/1, 10/1, and 12/1.
Who Will Win The Commonwealth Cup 2021?
Aidan O’Brien saddles Lipizzaner but the son of Uncle Mo doesn’t look anywhere near as good as his previous winner Caravaggio, though the return to fast ground may be a plus. Method is another that should appreciate a faster surface after flopping on softer ground last time, but his last three runs have been below par.
Dandalla won at last year’s Royal Ascot meeting but, after winning her first three, she’s disappointed three times since. Clive Cox saddles three runners this year in a bid to win back-to-back editions of the Commonwealth Cup. Dilligent Harry is unproven on turf, while Isabella Giles has been beaten in her last four Group races.
Supremacy looks the main hope for the Clive Cox stable. Adam Kirby takes the ride on this Group 1 winner. He disappointed on his seasonal debut, but improved markedly for his seasonal debut last year, and has a chance if bouncing back to his best form.
Dragon Symbol is going the right way and should prefer a return to better ground after just being touched off in a soft-ground Group 2 last time.
Money for Fivethousandtoone would also be interesting on his seasonal debut. Second in a Group 2 last season, he’s bred to make a useful 3-year-old.
But the gut feeling is that the colts will play second fiddle to the best of this year’s fillies. Miss Amulet has been tried at a variety of trips, but she looks ready for a return to six furlongs and she might grab a place.
Suesa is the only unbeaten runner in the field and this French-raider has the type of blistering turn of foot that wins top-class sprint races. But she may struggle to lay up with our tip Campanelle in the closing stages.
The American raider was quick enough to win the Queen Mary over five furlongs last year but made her biggest impression when winning the Prix Morny over six furlongs at Deauville. She looked likely to be run out of it at the furlong post that day, but she found plenty for pressure before running out a convincing winner. She then didn’t stay a mile at the Breeders’ Cup, but she could easily be the champion sprinter this year.
Commonwealth Cup Tip
Campanelle
16.20 – Coronation Stakes 2021
The Coronation Stakes is a Group 2 race over 7 furlongs and 213 yards that is restricted to 3-year-olds.
Coronation Stakes Trends 2021
Nine of the last ten winners of the Coronation Stakes were drawn between stalls seven and 16. Last year’s winner Alpine Star won from stall two, but she was simply head and shoulders above her opposition on the day.
Nine of the last ten winners had enjoyed a prep run, and six winners had won their previous race. Jessica Harrington has saddled two of the last three winners, with Irish-trained runners winning three of the last four editions. Only two of the last ten favourites have won, with winners returned at odds ranging from 4/6 to 20/1.
Who Will Win The Coronation Stakes 2021?
With none of the horses drawn in stalls one to six looking anything special, it could be worth drawing a line through the chances of Empress Josephine, Flirting Bridge, Pretty Gorgeous, and Snow Lantern. Oodnadatta is also drawn low but comes with the caveat of being trained by Jessica Harrington, while Novemba won the German 1,000 Guineas.
Lullaby Moon must prove she stays a mile, while Primo Bacio needs to step up again after winning a Listed race last time. Shale also needs to find some improvement on the balance of her form.
Fev Rover and Alcohol Free finished third in the 1,000 Guineas and it’s the latter that’s fancied to come out on top this time after being drawn away from the main action at Newmarket. But she’ll have to improve a fair bit to master the winner Mother Earth, who has since run well again in the French 1,000 Guineas.
The Guineas form isn’t always that strong and, as that may prove the vase this year, it’s worth taking a chance on the unbeaten Potapova. Sir Michael Stoute rarely over faces his horses early in their careers, so it looks a big pointer that he throws this well-bred filly into a Group 1 on just her third start.
Seemingly unfancied at 5/1 on her racecourse debut on the all-weather, she bolted up by six lengths. She then confirmed that impression when winning even more impressively on her turf debut at Redcar. Winning the Coronation Stakes on her third debut is a big task but she looks the value bet in the race at double-figure odds.
Coronation Stakes Tip
Potapova
