Free York Races Dante Festival 2021 Day Three Tips

14.40 – Matchbook ‘Best Value’ Exchange Handicap 2021

The Matchbook ‘Best Value’ Exchange Handicap is a class 2 race run over 1 mile 2 furlongs and 56 yards. It is a trial for York’s prestigious John Smith’s Cup that is run later in the season.

Matchbook ‘Best Value’ Exchange Handicap Trends 2021

Winners of the Matchbook ‘Best Value’ Exchange Handicap in the last decade have been rated between 85 and 100. 8-7 is the lightest weight carried to victory, while 9-7 is the heaviest. Five winners have been aged four, while two have been aged five, and three have been aged six.

Six of the last eight winners have been drawn between stalls three and eight, with the other two drawn 17 and 18. However, with only 12 runners this year, the middle stalls may again be the place to be. Five winners had run less than four times, but the last four winners had all run five times or more.

Five runners had run 16-25 days earlier, but the other five were making their seasonal debuts. Sir Michael Stoute and David Menusier are the only two trainers with runners that have won the race in the last decade. Andrea Atzeni has ridden the last two winners, while Ryan Moore, Graham Lee, and William Buick have also ridden winners in that time.

Eight of the last ten winners were returned at odds of 7/1 or less, with the other two returned at 12/1.

Who Will Win The Matchbook ‘Best Value’ Exchange Handicap 2021?

Weights and ratings only exclude the bottom-weight Makram, who may also be drawn too low in stall two. Santono Japan is berthed in stall one but does hail from the stable of Sir Michael Stoute, who has booked Ryan Moore to do the steering.

Pivoine looks older than ideal at the age of seven and has a tough-looking draw in stall 11. Sameem is ridden by Graham Lee but is in stall ten, while Andrea Atzeni may struggle to complete the hat-trick from stall nine on United Front. Irish Admiral is the least-experienced horse in the field, and he has the widest draw of all, stall 12.

Uzincso has won six of his 12 races on the all-weather but has yet to win on turf. First-time cheek-pieces may spark some improvement from Fishable, who has a placed effort at York to his name. Surrey Ridge, Blue Cap, and Surrey Pride are 4-year-olds that appear to be well-drawn and could have improvement to come.

But the vote goes to the Group race-placed Khagan, who is a very-interesting runner for David O’Meara, a trainer that has done well in the past with similar horses that have been transferred from top yards in France. He must overcome a longer than ideal absence of 562 days, but he could be different class to his opponents if ready to go on his first start for his new stable.

Free Matchbook ‘Best Value’ Exchange Handicap 2021 Tip

Khagan

15.10 – Yorkshire Cup 2021

The Yorkshire Cup is a Group 2 race run over 1 mile 5 furlongs and 88 yards. It is often used as a stepping-stone for horses that will later run in the Ascot Gold Cup and Goodwood Cup.

Yorkshire Cup Trends 2021

Just five horses go to post for the 2021 Yorkshire Cup and that may mean the draw has little significance. However, it is 15 years since any horse won from stall one.

Four 5-year-olds, three 4-year-olds, two 6-year-olds, and an 8-year-old have been successful in the last decade. Only one winner in that time has carried a penalty to victory and that was the might Stradivarius. Six winners were making their seasonal debut, while four had run between 13 and 27 days earlier. Only two of the last ten winners had won their previous race.

No trainer with a runner on this year’s Yorkshire Cup has won the race in the last ten years, Ryan Moore has ridden three winners and William Buick has ridden one. Winners in the last decade have tended to come from the head of the market, with nine returned at odds of 7/2 or shorter. But the other winner was a 25/1 outsider.

Who Will Win The 2021 Yorkshire Cup?

Wells Farhh Go had some useful form in the early part of his career but his form had tailed off when last seen 587 days ago. The handicapper has dropped him to a mark of 106 in his absence, but even at his peak of 112 he would still have a few pounds to find with his race-fit rivals.

All four of the other runners have already run this season, with the 110-rated Spanish Mission having run in Saudia Arabia and Meydan. He also has a few pounds to find with his rivals and must carry a penalty.

Sir Ron Priestly also must carry a penalty, but he did look in great heart when winning over 12-furlongs on his seasonal debut. He beat a very good horse there and the form book suggests he’s even better over this slightly longer distance.

Nayef Road has no penalty, and he ran some cracking races in defeat last season, with two runner-up finishes behind Stradivarius. He finished third behind that same rival 16 days ago, which entitles him to respect here. However, he must overcome stall one and he may not appreciate any further rain.

Any further rain should be in the favour of Santiago, who is also unpenalised, and has won both of his previous starts on soft ground, and he should relish York’s long straight with a bit of juice underfoot. Santiago is taken to win this race before going on to be competitive in some of this season’s major long-distance events.

Free Yorkshire Cup 2021 Tip

Santiago

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