As annoying as fixed games/events may seem to fans, there are still many people out there who can benefit from them, and who buy betting on fixed matches are winning huge amounts of profit in the process. In this guide, we will outline scams that surround match-fixing, and then we will provide some tips on how to identify fixed events/matches.
So, you’ve just been sent an email, text message, or a message through social media, and it’s from someone you’ve never heard of claiming they have knowledge of a fixed event, but they’ll only share it for a price. What should you do?
Simple: Just ignore it and do not reply.
You then may question yourself as to why someone would sell such information, as they could just bet on the fixed event themselves and win money.
Well, one of the potential reasons could be due to the individual trying to sell the information to make money, and add to their profits when they eventually win from the fixed event. But still, why wouldn’t they just wager a large amount of money onto the fixed event and save time? Also, they are risking being caught, which could lead to prosecution or heavy fines.
Guess what… it’s probably a scam!
How Betting on Fixed Matches Works
The fixed game scam is where an individual will share information on a fixed event in exchange for money. Those who claim that they have such knowledge are lying, and have no information on upcoming fixed events whatsoever. An example of this could be a Facebook page dedicated to providing fixed games for a fee.
If there are 200 responses to the page, then that’s 200-people paying for information for a potential fixed event. Once the page has received enough responses to generate a healthy amount of money, then the information will be shared. The individual(s) behind the scam will tell a third of the customers that the home team will win, the second third that the away team will win, and finally the final third that they game will end in a draw.
Whilst most of the customers will leave feeling frustrated, a third of the people will have won, and will now think that the page was legitimate and may have inside knowledge on more events to come.
Prior to the start of the next fixture, the page will send messages/posts directly to the winners of the previous game. However, this time the price to pay for the information is double the amount of the previous price. Despite this increase, everyone will pay, feeling mightily confident that they’ll win again. The scammer will then split the overall group into three again, and repeat the process of telling each third a different result.
The match is finished, and two-thirds feel annoyed with the fact that they’ve lost their money. However, there is a group of people that would have won, and this will have been the second time that they have won the bet. The two-time winners will have now fully brought into the claims that the people/person behind the page has a lot of inside information.
This process continues week after week, with the price increasing every time. The scammers will sometimes go as far to charge ten times the amount of money for false information than the original price when they started, but they know that the winners from the previous games will be foolish enough to pay.
When the higher the price of the information is, then the more money customers will lose if they have been told the results that won’t come through.
If this ever happens to you, don’t be fooled, as it really is too good to be true.
How To Spot Fixed Matches
Now that you are aware of the potential scam, it’s time to acknowledge the fact that fixed games do take place, and it has been reported on many occasions. Match-fixing has shown its ugly head in a wide range of sports, from cricket games to being fixed to tennis and football games being fixed too, and it doesn’t stop there! As most sport has had cases of fixed matches taking place. With that being said, how do we identify opportunities for betting on fixed matches?
Irregular Pre-Match Odds
Many punters, who use bookies, are aware of betting odds reflecting the money that has gone onto the markets, or certain outcomes of an event. An example of this could be in a football match, where Manchester City are set to play Everton. If City are listed as odds of 2.10 to win against Everton, and the punters are piling money on a City win, then the bookies will slash Manchester City’s odds as a result.
The odds will go down if there is a high demand for a City win, but the odds will go up if there is a high demand for an Everton win.
So now we know that outcomes are priced according to demand, and the likelihood of an outcome happening, we can use this as our advantage to find fixed games.
A fixed event can be identified when the demand on odds on an outcome being so great that it misrepresents the market.
Using the same example above, with Manchester City playing Everton, if the odds for a draw drops just before kick-off, then there has been a late surge of money being placed on a draw. Now, this could be normal, as a star player may have been benched, or fans may have listened to the opinions of pundits who think it will end in a draw. However, with this being said, if the drop-in odds for the draw is massive, then there has been a heavy and odd amount of money being put on the draw.
This has been seen many times in the Top tier of Italian Football, Serie A, where odds for draws are often irregular. This is due to clubs helping each other out, if needed, by granting mutually beneficial results come to the end of the season. In almost every season since 2001, the odds-on draws have been favoured over wins for certain teams in 76 matches. It comes to no surprise that most of those games actually finished as a draw.
We can compare this with the English Premier League, where there have been no games in the same period that have had odds that have favoured the draw over a win.
Be wary though when a drop off odds on a draw happens, as it doesn’t always mean that the match is fixed. We recommend you back the draw before the casual fans pile on the money. When a massive amount of money gets piled on, resulting in the odds being stopped, lay the draw at shorter odds on a betting exchange, ensuring you have locked in a profit.
Irregular In-Play Odds
This is another indicator of a fixed match taking place. As well as pre-match betting, in-play betting has also been a way where match-fixers have benefitted. When irregular pre-match odds appear, this also suggests that something dodgy is going on. With in-play betting, there is an automated process that will alert the bookie of any irregular patterns on in-play bets, who will then contact the authorities.
You may see this in leagues that are less popular. An example would be where the game looks like it’ll end in a comfortable win for a team, meaning the odds for a loss being extremely high, but in the final 10-15 mins, the other team will score 3 or 4 to win the game out of nowhere. The team defence, who were in the lead, will suddenly go to garbage and they will almost let in the goals with minimal effort. Match-fixers will benefit, by putting money on the other team winning when the odds are very high, almost as if they knew it were going to happen.
You can go on YouTube, or other video hosting websites, and see what fixed games look like, you won’t believe your eyes.
Referee’s Influencing The Game Too Much
Now we all get mad at the referee when they make mistakes, blaming them for the final result. Most of the time, these mistakes are natural, as they’re human too, and we all make mistakes.
There are times though where the referee makes too many bad mistakes, or heavily awarding decisions to one team over the other. Examples may include sending off players for lightly protesting, or not giving penalties that are completely blatant.
Refereeing scandals aren’t only seen in football either, with many scandalous performances by referees taking place in other sports. Sometimes the referee will look like they are the judge, jury and executioner by how much they influence the result.
Again, you can go online and look at irregular officiating, with referee’s granting imaginary fouls.
Most players have bad moments, with even the elite players having games where they’ll want to forget what happened. However, there are those times where a player makes such a bad mistake or plays so poorly that it’ll shock you.
Out of every position on the football field who can impact a game, the keeper is the player who can do it the most. Sometimes the keeper will barely try to save an attempt at goal, letting in weak shots or attempts that are easily saveable.
There are also other instances in other sports where teams will be paid by criminals or groups who are related to underworld parties or organised crime. In the 1978 season of College Basketball, Boston College were discovered to have won games under specific point spreads.
In any sport, upsets can happen at any time. Teams will win where they look like they have a 0% chance of winning a fixture. In football, Blackburn Rovers defeated Manchester United at Old Trafford by 3 goals to 2. Prior to kick-off, Blackburn to win were at odds of a massive 23/1. Whilst this may seem suspicious, it can be explainable, therefore it wasn’t fixed. There have been other times where teams that have never been heard of, have beaten the top teams comfortably.
With irregular results, the results are so ridiculous, that they can’t be explained by anyone. The best example we could come up with was the two games that took place in Nigeria between two matches where teams were fighting to stay in the league and avoid relegation. The two games ended 67-0 and 79-0… Yes, you read it correctly, sixty-seven – nil, and seventy-nine – nil! This was an attempt to improve their goal difference. We are happy to tell you that officials and referees were banned from taking part in any form of football again, and four clubs were given suspensions of 10 years.
Match Fixing will continue to happen, despite the number of new rules or regulations that may be introduced. There will always be a third party paying large sums of money to clubs or governing bodies who seek to reap the rewards of winning massive profit on fixed games. After reading this guide, we now hope you can identify when a fixed match is taking place.
Finally, we can’t reiterate enough to walk away if you have been messaged or offered to be given information on a fixed game for a price, it’s not worth it, no matter how great it seems. Instead, why not follow properly researched football tips?