If you’re looking to profit from betting on tennis, you need to learn how to predict a tennis match. There are lots of easily available statistics that will help you do this, such as tennis world rankings, previous head-to-heads, and player profile performance statistics.
Statistics can help you pick the winner of a tennis match, but there are also lots of other tennis betting markets that you can exploit.
For example, if you find that two players have identical records against each other, you might find it difficult to pick a winner. However, if statistics show that a high percentage of their games have gone to the final set, you could bet on this outcome.
Keep An Eye On The Tennis World Rankings
Tennis world rankings are based on the number of points players have accrued over the last 12 months and points are awarded for reaching various stages of tournaments. But some tournaments carry more weight than others, for example, in men’s singles tennis Grand Slams and the ATP Masters 1,000 events are worth much more than the ATP 500 and ATP 250 events.
Rankings are based on a 12-month rolling basis, so rankings can alter quickly. For example, a player that won a tournament 12-months ago will lose a lot of points when that win no longer counts towards his rolling points total.
As with all sports, the world of professional sports comprises a combination of players that are at the peaks of their powers, are improving all the time, or are past their best and are regressing. Watching the world rankings is a good way of monitoring the progress of all these types of players.
Check Tennis Head-to-Heads
Head-to-head statistics can be a great tool when it comes to how to predict a tennis match. Not only do these provide the previous results between the two players, but you also get an event breakdown highlighting the different surfaces each player’s wins were achieved on and in what tournaments.
You can see results for matches that have been played on grass, clay, indoor hard court, and outdoor hard courts. You can also see the scores of each of the matches.
For example, player-A and player-B may have played each other five times, with player-A winning four times and player-B once. Player-A is likely to be the favourite, but all four of his wins may have come on hard courts, while Player-B won the only time they met on clay.
If the next match between the two players is on clay, you could easily get value odds about player-B winning. Another look at the statistics also shows that all their five matches have been best-of-3 sets and have been decided in the final set. You could also decide to bet on there being three sets played rather than two.
Look At Player Profile Performance Statistics
It’s easy to find tennis player profiles online, and the best ones are full of statistics that can help you profit from tennis betting.
Player bios include simple stuff like whether players are right-handed or left-handed and whether they use a single-handed or double-handed backhand. But these can help you compile your own stats about how players perform against these different styles of players.
Win/loss records are another fantastic tool, as they breakdown overall win/loss records into a variety of handy subheadings that can give you angles to exploit when deciding how to predict a tennis match. You can see grand slams wins, ATP 1,000 wins, in finals, and their performances against top-10 ranked players.
You can see how players have performed on grass, clay, hardcourts, carpet, indoors, and outdoors. You can also see how they perform in tiebreaks and deciding sets or against left-handers or right-handers.
Finding Value Tennis Bets
Tennis world rankings, previous head-to-heads, and player profile performance statistics are all fantastic tools that you can use when considering how to predict a tennis match for betting purposes. But all that studying will be futile if you don’t understand the concept of ‘value’ in betting.
For example, world number one Novak Djokovic is 1.20 (1/5) to beat world number two Rafa Nadal on hardcourts, with Nadal priced up at 4.5 (7/2). You check their previous head-to-heads on hard courts and see that Novak Djokovic has won 16 of their 20 matches and Rafa Nadal has won four.
Djokovic is the obvious favourite and, if you bet on him, you may well win. But having won 16 of 20 matches, his true odds for winning should be 1.25 (1/4), not 1.20. Meanwhile, Nadal has only won four of the 20 matches, so his odds to win should be 5.00 (4/1), not 4.50.
What the bookies have done here is fixed the odds in their favour so, as you can’t find a value angle, you should not have a bet.
But a further look at the statistics shows that eight of them have been three-setters, and six of those eight matches have gone to the final set. The bookies are betting 10/11 that the match is decided in two sets and 10/11 that the match is decided in three sets.
Past head-to-heads suggest that three sets is a 1.33 (1/3) shot, while two sets is a 3/1 (4.00) shot. That suggests strongly that betting on three sets is a value bet. Of course, not all value bets win, but finding value bets is the way to make long-term profits from betting on tennis.
How To Pick Tennis Winners?
Picking lots of tennis winners isn’t difficult, as there are lots of tennis matches won by players at very short odds. Unfortunately, these types of bets rarely offer any sort of value. Making long-term profits from betting on tennis by finding value bets takes time and effort.
You need to take the time to study tennis world rankings, previous head-to-heads, and player profile performance statistics, but you also need to put in the effort to find the statistics that help you find value bets.
It’s also a great idea to take notice of everything that is happening in the tennis world, such as injuries, a change of coaches or equipment manufacturer, as these can all help you swing those value statistics a little bit more in your favour.
Yes, making money from betting on tennis takes hard work and dedication, or you can simply pay a professional gambler for his advice.
Betting Gods is a tipster platform used by many of the world’s top professional gamblers who are willing to share their advice and tips on a monthly subscription basis. You can check out our tipsters by reading their profiles on the Betting Gods website, where you can see important statistics such as percentage of winners, return on investment, averagely monthly profits, and total profits since joining us.