In betting, anything can go awry. You may be backing an odds-on favourite horse, only to see it fall at the final fence. In football, the best teams usually win. But the term “usually” does a lot of heavy lifting in the betting community. “Usually” does not mean “always”. The fact that any team can win, lose, or draw a match sometimes points bettors toward more stats-based bets that do not cover the match result. In the United States, they refer to this as props betting. It could be the number of fouls a player commits, or the number of yellow cards in again, or even the number of shots on target, with punters betting whether it will be over or under a specific amount. Props betting is popular because it is rooted in statistics, and may still come off if your chosen team is having an off-day.
Corners betting on over/under markets is one of the UK market’s most popular props bets, and there are some interesting considerations about it. First of all, statistics should be central to making football predictions for betting. With corners markets, a team’s prowess isn’t the only consideration; one must also consider the way the team plays, and how the opponent sets up against it.
A quick primer: An over/under corners bet is a market that allows you to bet on whether the number of corners will be above or below a specific figure. To save having any ties, the bookies usually use .5 digits. For example, you might see a bet for over 8.5 corners in the game. If there are 9 or more corners in the game, the bet wins. If there are 8 or fewer corners, the bet loses. You can also usually bet on which team gets the most corners or whether a team will get over a specific number of corners.
Top Team = More Corners
Now, there are certain important factors to think about. First, the stronger teams usually have more corners than the weaker teams over the course of a season. Although, that’s only a general rule of thumb, and there are always exceptions. But broadly speaking, you know that a top team is going to attack more, so they’ll naturally get more corners.
So far across the 2023/24 Premier League season, Arsenal have the highest number of corners per game, averaging 9 corners per game. Admittedly, the data set for the Premier League so early in the season is quite small, but bettors should learn to adapt to it as the season progresses. The team that concedes the most corners is West Ham, with a massive 11.25 conceded per game. It’s our view that West Ham is more of an outlier than Arsenal, and that average should come down slightly as the season progresses.
Monitor the Stats
The point, however, is that when Arsenal come up against West Ham (the London clubs will next clash on Boxing Day), you’d expect a high number of corners for the Gunners in that match if trends continue. An important point to consider, however, is that Arsenal don’t concede many corners, so factor that into the overall betting strategy. Manchester United are arguably the most interesting team to consider overall, as they both concede and win a higher-than-average amount of corners (13.75 per game).
This information could change as the season progresses. As it stands, 54% of Premier League matches have over 10.5 corners; 69% have over 9.5; 77% have over 8.5. Savvy punters monitor these trends and act accordingly. No betting strategy is 100% foolproof. But understanding how stats play a role in your corner bets can stand you in good stead over the course of the football season.
