We frequently get asked, what does goal handicap mean in betting? It is a term commonly used in football betting circles to describe a handicap betting market in which one of the teams concedes a predetermined number of goals to the other.
Goal handicap bets are available on many football matches at many betting sites. The bookies will set the market at an agreed number of goals start and this will be added to the final score at the end of the match. The team that is then in front is determined as the winner of the goal handicap bet.
For example, when Everton play Liverpool, Liverpool may even-money in the outright market, with Everton at 11/4, and the draw 3/1. So, in the handicap goal market, Liverpool may be asked to concede 1 goal to Everton. The odds of each team winning this bet would then become something like Everton even-money, Liverpool 2/1, and the draw 3/1.
If you bet on Everton to win, they would now need to only draw or win the match at full-time for you to win your bet. For instance, if Everton and Liverpool drew 1-1 at Full-time, Everton would be deemed the 2-1 winners having received a goal start. If Everton won the match outright, they would, obviously, also win the +1-goal handicap market.
For Liverpool to win this bet, they would have to win the match by two goals or more at full-time. For example, if they beat Everton 2-0, they would still be the 2-1 winners in the +1-goal handicap market. If Liverpool beat Everton by a single goal at full-time, the match would then be deemed a draw. For example, if Liverpool won 2-1, Everton would secure a draw courtesy of their + 1 handicap goal making the hypothetical score-line 2-2.
What Goal Handicap Markets Are There?
Bookmakers normally offer a variety of popular betting markets for most matches in the world’s biggest leagues, such as the English Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, the German Bundesliga, and Ligue 1. Some of the most popular markets to bet on are the goal handicap markets.
Bookmakers tend to set a variety of thresholds, starting at +1 goals and increasing to as high as +5 goals. In between those, of course, you have +2, +3, and +4 goals. Bookmakers also tend to offer these markets both ways, such as you can have Everton +1 goal or Liverpool +1 goal. You can pick any of these thresholds and bet on which one you think offers the best value.
The odds that are available on goal handicap markets will depend on how closely the two teams are matched in the outright markets. For example, you may get the same price about Liverpool beating Everton by one goal as you would for Manchester City to beat Fulham by two goals.
Examples Of Goal Handicap Bets
Let’s use our hypothetical match between Everton and Liverpool at Goodison Park as the basis for our examples of goal handicap bets.
With a +1-goal start, Everton are even-money to win the match. If you bet £10 on Everton to win, you would win £10 + get your £10 stake back for a total return of £20.
If Liverpool are 2/1 to win conceding Everton a +1-goal start, and they win 2-0, you will win £20 + your £10 stake back for a total return of £30.
These odds may not sound too exciting, but many professional football punters make a long-term profit by regularly picking goal handicap winners at these kinds of odds. If you want bigger odds, then you need to take more of a chance on one of the teams being able to concede more goals in the handicap markets.
For example, for Liverpool to win conceding two goals you might get 11/2, three goals 14/1, and four goals 33/1.
Should I Bet On Goal Handicap Markets?
Handicap markets are one the most popular football betting markets, as they give you a chance of betting on a team that you think will win and increasing the odds of them winning by predicting what is the minimum number of goals they win by. For example, if you back Liverpool to win conceding a goal, then you are really backing Liverpool to win by at least two goals.
How Do I Know Which Goal Markets To Bet On?
The key to success when it comes to betting on goal handicap markets is to always find the value. That means finding bets that you fancy but only betting when the odds are bigger than you expected.
Hypothetically, if you look at the last six matches between Everton and Liverpool, the results may have been 0-0, 2-5, 1-3, 1-2, 2-0, and 1-4.
This means that Everton have would have won both the 0-0 game and the 2-0 game with a +1-goal start. This means they have won two of the last six and should be a 2/1 chance to win again, but the odds are only even-money.
Only the 1-2 match would have ended as a draw with Everton getting a 1-goal start, which means that a draw should be 5/1, yet it is only 3-1.
However, Liverpool would have won the games that ended 2-5, 1-3, and 1-4, and three wins in six matches means they should be an even-money shot, but you can get 2/1. That would make Liverpool a value bet on these statistics.
How Do I Pick Winners In Goal Handicap Markets?
Like in any form of betting, if you’re going to pick your winners, you need to spend a lot of time studying statistics and form. You need to be able to analyse this form and apply your findings by picking the best markets to bet in. This is true of all football betting, including goal handicap betting.
Sometimes, it’s not enough to simply apply statistics such as in our hypothetical last six games between Everton and Liverpool example.
You also need to consider how teams may have changed since they last played. Recent managerial changes, upturns or downturns in form, and injuries can all make past stats unreliable. That’s why you also need to apply a good deal of logic to your goal handicap bets and only bet when you think a market offers value.
What Do I Do If I’m Rubbish At Picking Goal Handicap Winners?
If picking goal handicap winners isn’t one of your best skills, but you’d still love to make a profit betting on them or other football markets, Betting Gods will be happy to help. You can follow our free football tips from our professional punters.
Our professional football tipsters also offer their subscription services at very reasonable monthly rates. Subscribing to your favourite football tipsters means you’ll get full access to all their tips. You’ll also be given advice about staking and using a betting bank.
We hope that’s answered your question, what does goal handicap mean in betting. If you’d like more advice about football betting, feel free to check out all the free-to-read articles on the Betting Gods blog. Happy punting!